The John Locke Institute 2023 Global Essay Competition
Jaiveer was selected as a Finalist, following which he was invited to attend academic conferences at Oxford and was awarded 'Merit'.
The denouement of the 19th century gave rise to a new giant in international politics - the famed superpower; essentially a prepotent nation with economic potential greater than other nations, in terms of technological advancement, military might, industrial development, and human capital. Another notable difference between a superpower and other states is that it demonstrates a
consistent political philosophy in its diplomacy and foreign affairs. This includes an idiosyncratic lens of how, under what rules, in pursuit of what goal, and why this nation is legitimate in its role.[1] A superpower's government should be known to maintain a prominent allegiance toward upholding moral values like truth, justice, peace, freedom, and humility. It should be the focal point for combating environmental and economic threats, and actively promoting and abutting human rights standards; the nation should be an international paragon of these virtues.[2]
Though the world has hosted varying civilizations - Greek, Persian, Indus Valley, Mesopotamian, Egyptian, and more - witnessed the rise and fall of manifold empires - Ottoman, Spanish, Hapsburgs, Arab, Mauryan, Mughal - there have only been five actual superpowers: Mongol and Roman empires in ancient times, the British empire, the USSR, and finally, the USA in the current epoch.[3] However, after an era of dominance spanning more than seven decades, America's global leadership faces challenges from a growing global power.
China's vast resources and rising economy have propelled it from being a third-world country with a poverty rate of 90% in the late 1970s to now an entity with preeminent influence and authority in the liberal international order; and more importantly, China is capable of achieving superpower status and its own world order.[4] Through this essay, I would like to explore how China's emergence as the hegemon of a unipolar world would radically restructure the lives of people within China by ushering in economic prosperity and exacerbating human rights issues, along with deeply altering global policy through reshaping international alliances and promoting Chinese soft power.
China becoming the leading superpower would catalyse economic growth for the nation through the advancement of industries, strengthening of its manufacturing, increased access to technological progress, and expeditious urbanisation. The Chinese Communist Party’s ambition to catch up with and surpass the West in advanced technologies is not neoteric, however, it has intensified greatly in recent years. For example, China is investing heavily to conceive advanced chips that can power weapons systems and authoritarian surveillance that could augment its national security, and potentially threaten the US and its allies.[5]
There has also been significant upscaling in the creation of industrial parks which considerably increases production and consumption of many kinds for more than a mile in all directions from the parks' boundaries. The industrial parks create 'edge cities', places that produce their own hubs of residential life and new employment, also improving labourers' working conditions as well as general standards of living.[6] These are all large contributors to enhancing China's competitiveness in the sectors of biotechnology and advanced manufacturing.
Furthermore, the gradual relaxation of the ‘hukou’ system over the last decade, which categorises individuals in China as either rural or urban residents, has fostered the largest urbanisation process in human history. China's swift urbanisation has yielded significant societal and economic benefits, including substantial GDP growth, significant poverty reduction, enhanced transportation infrastructure, improved access to healthcare, and advancements in the education system, but on the downside has been a product of severe overallocation of resources and neglected equal opportunities for migrant workers.[7]
In February, China’s paramount leader Xi Jinping stated that they “urgently need to strengthen basic research and solve key technology problems” in order to “cope with international science and technology competition and achieve a high level of self-reliance and self-improvement”. Tangential to this communiqué, China is surfacing as a major player in the evolving AI landscape. China has demonstrated its commitment to AI through initiatives such as the "Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan" released in 2017. This, coupled with its goal of becoming a global leader of this transformative technology by 2030 means generative AI will greatly impact the Chinese job market and workforce dynamics. Moreover, the Chinese military and defence industry have undertaken initiatives in experimentation and indagation in AI-enabled armaments that could threaten global security and stability, particularly as the US-China rivalry aggravates further.[8]
China as a superpower is also set to prosper in the burgeoning field of space exploration. Since it became the third country after the former Soviet Union and the US (both of which are classified as superpowers) to put a person into space under its own resources in 2003, China’s Cluster and Double Star missions have produced 2,300 peer-reviewed scientific papers, a commendable feat.
Now, becoming the leading space powerhouse would allow it to successfully conduct lunar exploration missions, get more countries on board its International Lunar Research Station project, and also execute its plans for future Mars missions.[9]
Furthermore, due to the consolidation of power by the ruling Communist Party, Chinese domestic policies would impose more robust centralised control, suppression of dissent, and further curbing of human rights without any accountability. For instance, China would perfect the sly tactics employed by its well-oiled internet propaganda machine; instead of refuting criticism and clamping down on public opinion, the Chinese government overwhelms the population with positive news in order to eclipse bad news and reroute coverage away from genuine problems. This would inflame, in tandem with the already harsh regulation on the flow of information through social media platforms and search engines.[10]
Upon accumulating more power, China’s treatment of minorities would also worsen; for example, the horrific conditions meted out to the Uyghur community in Xinjiang. Since 2017, an
estimated eight hundred thousand to two million Uyghurs and other Muslims, including ethnic Kazakhs and Uzbeks, have been detained and subjected to torture and inhuman treatment. Those not detained undergo intense surveillance, religious constraints, and forced labour.[11]
Thus, if China were to win the 21st century’s chief geopolitical contest, the material lives of its people would improve because of increased investment in development projects. However, all of this would come at a cost: the even stronger erasure of cultural diversity and inclusion.
If China were to achieve global supremacy, it would have extensive universal implications, most pressing for South and South-East Asian nations. Xi has emphasised that unification with Taiwan is fundamental to achieving the Chinese Dream, and it is likely China would take brazen political
and military measures to take control of Taipei. As cross-strait tensions rise, and owing to US President Joe Biden’s rejection of the strategic ambiguity policies on this matter, US-China relations would sour even further as the United States would come to Taiwan’s defence if China were to attack.[12]
China would also aggravate its injustices in Hong Kong, with the current ‘one country, two systems’ arrangement expiring in 2047. China has already been chipping away at Hong Kong’s freedoms since the British government’s handover, the most recent and bullish of which has been the imposition of a national security law in 2020. The legislation illegalises any form of dissent; grants Beijing the authority to establish a security force in Hong Kong and exert influence over the appointment of judges presiding over national security-related cases; carries broad interpretations of offences like terrorism, subversion, and secession; all in an attempt to stifle any political opposition.[13]
The Chinese government's expansionist policies, particularly in disputed territories, have already led to border tensions and territorial disputes. This brings potentially harmful consequences for India, not only threatening peace and stability in the region but also directly affecting its security and sovereignty. The clash at Galwan Valley in 2020 in which twenty Indian army men were killed was the worst confrontation between the two countries in almost sixty years. China's increasing influence in international organisations also adversely impacts India as China has consistently worked against India getting a permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council every year. India’s over-reliance on China for manufacturing imports makes it even simpler for China to encroach on India's sphere of influence and limit its strategic options.[14]
Furthermore, life for everyone would change due to China’s pursuit of strategic partnerships with countries across the globe. Beijing's efforts to shape global norms and institutions in alignment with its interests would have the potential to increasingly disrupt the existing international order and undermine principles of multilateralism. What would follow is the complete restructuring of the global economy, as China would continue to challenge America’s greatest asset: the dollar. The historical dominance of the dollar gives Washington unrivalled economic and political muscle, as well as the US the ability to slap sanctions on countries unilaterally, freezing them out of large parts of the world economy. The de-dollarisation of the world economy, marshalled by the motivations of Russia and China, is being embraced by many countries - Saudi Arabia pricing its oil in yuan, India trading with Russia in yuan, African nations with central bank
digital currencies - which, if successful, would plunge the US into a recession. Moreover, if the renminbi replaced the dollar as the global reserve currency, albeit a seemingly distant possibility, it would provide China with unprecedented intercontinental influence.[15]
International alliances would change because of changed power dynamics, as countries would compromise on democratic issues to strategically align with China. This is owed to states fundamentally being selfish actors who want to maximise power: while cooperative frameworks and multilateral initiatives can temper the pursuit of power, the basic principle that states act primarily out of self-interest and a desire to bolster their own capabilities will remain. This would result in the creation of new alliances between China, Russia, and countries in Africa and Latin America. China's Belt and Road Initiative plays a crucial role in facilitating its engagement in Africa and the Middle East, offering infrastructure development that has the potential to reshape trade routes, access to resources, and regional security dynamics.[16]
The multi-directional interplay between the economy and world culture spells out more reverberations of China’s snowballing power and prosperity. Globalisation has permeated the diffusion of cultural values, practices, and ideas across borders, breeding a sense of interconnectedness among nations. Nonetheless, it is important to strike a perfect balance in policy, to avoid absolute cultural homogenisation whilst aggrandising preservation, and also harness the benefits that globalisation offers.[17] Hence, an advanced economy would mean that China would be able to abet the Han identity - the culture of the country’s dominant ethnic group - in the Chinese mainland, and also invest in its promotion at a global level.
Spreading their culture is another way in which countries accumulate soft power. China's pursuit of soft power involves substantial investments in infrastructure, media influence, and multilateral engagement. China's funding of cultural initiatives, such as the Confucius Institutes, demonstrates its intention to promote its culture and values, aiming to gain influence by establishing educational exchange programs.[18] There would also be an increased cultural appeal for Mandarin, as more trade would happen in the language, and in the future it could replace English as the world’s lingua franca, also becoming a priority in academic curricula worldwide. This would herald the new Asian age for the world.
Therefore, China’s unveiling paradigm shift as an international supremo would profoundly reorient the global economy and allocation of resources, along with acutely transmuting worldwide policy by proselytising Chinese soft power and remodelling cross-border partnerships. This will portend the beginning of a new big cycle involving periods of peace, creativity, and progress as well as depression, war, and destruction of wealth, a pattern that has repeated itself throughout history. That said, I believe the world would be a better place without any superpowers, as countries could ensure their prosperity by maintaining a power equilibrium by collectively checking the power growth of other countries.
Jaiveer was selected as a Finalist, following which he was invited to attend academic conferences at Oxford and was awarded 'Merit'.
1. Timofeev, I. (2023) Political philosophy: An attribute of a superpower, Modern Diplomacy. Available at: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/03/11/political-philosophy-an-attribute-of-a-superpower/
2. Carter, J. (2011) What is a superpower?, The Carter Center. Available at:
https://www.cartercenter.org/news/editorials_speeches/tikkun-082011.html
3. Shankar, P.R. (2020) World superpowers and China, The Daily Guardian. Available at:
https://thedailyguardian.com/world-superpowers-and-china/
4. Sullivan, J. and Brands, H. (2020) China has two paths to global domination , Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/05/22/china-has-two-paths-to-global-domination-pub-81908
5. Pifer, S., Hass, R. and Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, P.K.B. (2022) Global China: Technology, Brookings. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-china-technology/
6. Dizikes, P. (2017) Industrial ‘edge cities’ have helped China grow, MIT News | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Available at: https://news.mit.edu/2017/industrial-edge-cities-helped-china-grow-0818
7. Chen, M. (2019) Forty years and beyond: China’s rapid urbanisation since reform and opening-up, Asia Dialogue. Available at:
https://theasiadialogue.com/2019/03/14/forty-years-and-beyond-chinas-rapid-urbanisation-since-reform-and-opening-u p/
8. Just how good can China get at generative AI? (2023) The Economist. Available at:
https://www.economist.com/business/2023/05/09/just-how-good-can-china-get-at-generative-ai?gclid=Cj0KCQjw7uSk BhDGARIsAMCZNJuT2-2TwdahqqaMSdJQI8yHaBJqJ8ildno1biXRni1EI4pP49nggX8aAn-oEALw_wcB&gclsr c=aw.ds
9. Clark, S. (2016) China: The New Space Superpower, The Guardian. Available at:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/aug/28/china-new-space-superpower-lunar-mars-missions
10. Illing, S. (2017) China is perfecting a new method for suppressing dissent on the internet, Vox. Available at: https://www.vox.com/world/2017/8/2/16019562/china-russia-internet-propaganda-media
11. Maizland, L. (2022) China’s repression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-xinjiang-uyghurs-muslims-repression-genocide-human-rights
12. Maizland, L. (2023) Why China-Taiwan relations are so tense, Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden
13. Maizland, L. (2022) Hong Kong’s freedoms: What China promised and how it’s cracking down, Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/hong-kong-freedoms-democracy-protests-china-crackdown
14. Singh, S. (2020) Why China’s aggressive rise as a superpower spells bad news for India, The Economic Times.
Available at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/why-chinas-aggressive-rise-as-a-superpower-spells-bad -news-for-india/articleshow/76485399.cms?from=mdr
15. Zakaria, F. (2023) Opinion | the dollar is our superpower, and Russia and China are threatening it, The Washington Post. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/03/24/us-dollar-strength-russia-china/
16. Kuo, M.A. (2023) China-russia cooperation in Africa and the Middle East, – The Diplomat. Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/china-russia-cooperation-in-africa-and-the-middle-east/
17. Olivier, J. (2015) Culture and the economy: Understanding the dynamics of Globalization, HEC Paris. Available at: https://www.hec.edu/en/knowledge/articles/culture-and-economy-understanding-dynamics-globalization
18. Albert, E. (2018) China’s big bet on Soft Power, Council on Foreign Relations. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-big-bet-soft-power
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